[B] Both long and short in one thought[/B]
2004-11-29
All the books on speculative market analysis warn us in unison, “buy on lows in an upward trend, and short on highs in a downward trend”, what a simple operation method! But why do we often go in the opposite direction? Why are there people selling short every second during the rising process, and people buying all the time during the downward trend?
doesn’t know the truth of following the trend, why do we go against the direction of the trend without knowing it? In fact, the key point is that the trend is long-short conversion. From falling to rising, it can be a rising trend or a rebound. Is it a downtrend and not a pullback? Yun Shang Hui Xin Limited
If there is a decline in the upward trend, you must buy when the pullback occurs, but what will happen if you continue to fall after buying? Turn back after the loss, one is that it has really turned into a downtrend, and you stick to the position and end up finding that the trend has changed and you are out of the game with a large loss. The situation is the same not only when the ups and downs change, but also when the ups and downs change, because any trend is born from the original opposite trend, and at the beginning of a new trend, anyone will regard a new trend as a callback to the original trend Or rebound. In fact, many of us who are in the opposite direction in the trend follow the principle of “buy at low prices in an upward trend, and short at highs in a downward trend”. It’s just that we regard the new trend as an adjustment of the original trend. Follow the trend, we all know, but which trend to follow, whether it is a new trend or the original trend, everyone may say that of course we are following the new trend, but in fact, in operation, we often want to follow the new trend or discover new trends. The high point of the rebound in the original trend is empty at the low point of the callback. There is nothing wrong with what is said in the book. Why is it so difficult to do it in actual combat? This involves a problem of trend definition. Yun Shang Hui Xin
Many of our friends may have played a computer game called “Monopoly”. In this game, you can buy and sell stocks to increase your income. Buy as soon as the trend line goes up, and sell short as soon as it goes down, to ensure you a lot of profits, because it can rise or fall continuously. In this game, we don’t need to define whether the trend is rising or falling, whether it is a callback or a rebound. But why can’t we use this method for making orders? Because the market we do is not like the trend in the game. It goes up and down in a straight line every minute and every second. Let you make money happily. When a market comes out, don’t say that you read the wrong direction. Even if you read the trend correctly, you may not be able to hold your position to complete this wave of trends in actual operation, because in the process of trend development Rocked you out. And at the beginning of the trend, if you operate in the direction of the new trend, it must be against the original trend, and you don’t know whether your position is a new trend or a rebound or callback. You act as if it is a new trend, and if you make a profit, you don’t go, but it turns out to be a rebound or a pullback, and you will be caught later; if you think of a rebound or a pullback, you go short on rallies and go long on lows, but people turn around.
Then how can we distinguish what is a rebound and what is an uptrend, which is a callback and which is a downtrend, and further, what is a trend and what is a countertrend. So far no book has given us the answer to this question. Our slogan is often a slogan that can be used to educate people, but not a method of operation. YSHX
How to define the nature of the trend actually contains many problems, but the key is that we need to find the critical point of the trend, or use a fixed indicator to define what kind of situation is a trend change. Look at the adjustment of the trend, and look at it as a new trend. There is another problem here. Each of us can define this critical point in our own way. In the end, we may not be able to accurately judge whether the trend has really changed. Or to take a step back, even if you find the right critical point, your operation at this critical point is actually a gamble, because no one can tell you whether this critical point will be broken through. If you do it in the right direction, you will not only make money, but also If you step on the right rhythm, you are eligible to participate in the next round of the critical point game. If you do it wrong, you will lose money and lose money. In fact, no matter how big or small the trend is, no matter which operation, you will not be able to escape such a situation. Cruel life and death choices. yunshfx
It turns out that I once wrote such a poem in an article on futures: “The futures market is like a crocodile pond. There is nothing to be discouraged in defeat and nothing to be happy; no one knows the impermanence of the world, and the rich and the poor are only in one thought.”
